The Independent Group are following in the footsteps of the SDP in 1981 — but it’s unlikely that they’ll see the same results.

Shock rippled through the political world when a group of MPs who for months have been told to leave the Labour party, went and left the Labour party. As an active member of a political party myself, I know how hard that is. It’s not a decision taken lightly, and I have a huge amount of respect for the intrepid seven who defied a leadership dragging their heels over anti semitism, and failing to properly oppose one of the worst governments in recent memory.

But what’s interesting is the timing. Have a look at the way the SDP splintered and formed in 1981, and transposing it today you see remarkable similarities. First, a Labour conference in January confirmed to the “Gang of Four” that Labour was irrevocably taken by the hard left. A week later, they resigned the whip and formed the Council for Social Democracy — not a party, just a “pressure group”. A month later they officially launched the SDP. A month after that, they formed the Alliance with the Liberal party.

Now — let’s look at the timings of this week’s news. A week after Luciana Berger is repudiated by her local party and receives a barrage of anti semitic abuse, seven MPs decide enough is enough, and resign the whip. They form The Independent Group — not a party, just a “pressure group”. A month later, and the Liberal Democrats are due to pass three major reforms: 1) allow non-MPs to be leader. 2) create a registered supporters scheme that gets non-member supporters formally involved for free. 3) scrap the 12 month minimum membership before being a candidate rule. A month still after that, is when Vince Cable is due to resign, and a leadership election under these new rules will ensue.

So to reiterate: The initial formation of the splinter groups already match up. If they follow the SDP roadmap, then TIG will be launching a new party exactly when the Lib Dems are opening up their own. And Vince’s stepping down as leader at a time when the SDP-Liberal alliance formed suggests to me that this new TIG/Lib Dem hybrid would seek to elect a new non-MP leader to cement their relationship. This may be nothing more than crystal ball gazing, but the timings are interesting to consider at the very least.

But as a Liberal Democrat, I’m watching this with an interested but very cautious eye. The Gang of Four were politicians at the zenith of their career, their departure carried serious weight. This gang of seven are just backbenchers, with only Chukka having any amount of name recognition. My worry is that they’ll all lose their seats at the next election, leaving Parliament and the Labour party with a dearth of pro-European, centrist voices. This would be a serious error.

My initial feeling was that they need Tory MPs to join them. Without which they would entirely lack the legitimacy of an apparently cross-spectrum party. The SDP only had one Tory MP join its ranks, with 28 Labour defectors, but a presence of both parties is crucial. It was in the writing of this article that three MPs, Wollaston, Soubry, and Allen have indeed left the Conservative party to join TIG. This is huge. It whittles Theresa May’s already razor thin majority down even further, and Robert Peston believes this increases the chance of a snap election being called.

Now they’ve passed this first hurdle of getting Tories to join them, they now need more Labour MPs to follow their lead. Chuka Umunna’s “remain cabal” that repeatedly defied Corbyn’s whip totals around 51, one of them being my own Labour MP Darren Jones, who is a centrist remainer whose recent literature was surprisingly light on Labour branding. I had expected him to join them soon, but seems instead to be taking the Tom Watson line of “this is a shame, we must reflect as a party”. But given Jones is on a deselection list, his tune may soon change. Nevertheless, it is MPs like this that will further legitimise this movement. With 51 MPs in this cabal, getting somewhere close to the 28 defectors the SDP had is not much to ask.

Lastly, they need to have some kind of arrangement with the Liberal Democrats. There’s not much space for two centrist remain parties in British Politics, so it is essential that the two parties at least form a dialogue. Reading their statement on their website, it strikes me as eerily similar to the preamble to the Lib Dem constitution (commitment to market capitalism with a social conscience; importance of the individual, etc). I am however personally against a merger. The Liberal Democrats have their own strong liberal identity, and I’m of the opinion that none of these new Independents have that liberal zeal that the Gang of Four at least showed signs of. Nevertheless, I’m open to an electoral pact to ensure that Parliament has a strong centrist voice after the next election.

And so I watch this story develop with bated breath. My expectation is that this will all be forgotten in five years to the detriment of the values they (and indeed I) seem to hold to be true. But my respect for these MPs who left a party they have devoted much of their lives to is still high, and I wish them the best of luck.